BTC bottom

In the topic about the 546 day timeline I already mentioned that it is still possible for Bitcoin to drop down to a last crash, wiping the market clean and set a clear bottom for this period of bear market.
That bottom will then also become an important indicator for future price levels in next bull market.
A situation like that has been seen also in 2015 and 2018.
Due to the fact that the exact halving date can vary, Bitcoin will discover a "dangerous area" within the next coming days (from 02-Nov-2022 until 12-Nov-2022)
In the snip below:

blue: date of halving
orange: timelines from top to crash and from halving back to crash

The timelines for 2nd having period and 3rd halving period are well known:
546 days from halving back to crash
400 days from 2014 top to crash down in 2015
332 days from 2017 top to crash down in 2018

Of course the historical data is poor. But the 546 days are interesting. The easiest way to do some prediction for this period was to calculate an average out of 400 and 332.
Result: 366 days. These days need to be counted from the market top in 2021. With that we will end up by 12-Nov-2022
The other indicator is the 546 days. These must be calculated from the expected halving in 2024. By doing that, we get to 02-Nov-2022.

This difference (02-Nov to 12-Nov) will mark the "dangerous area" - the violet box.
A crash about 40%-50% is possible.

Possibility for 2022